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地震史料研究翻译

发布时间:2011-09-27 22:48:33
 

毋庸讳言,历史资料中的技术含量毕竟偏低。因为文字多出自文吏之手为赈济之用,观察事物的角度“重定性、轻定量;重描述、轻分析”,这就很难直接地用于现代科学工作。从3000年来4.7级以上的历史地震的史料记录频度看(图5),宋朝以前的绝大部分时间都在(2次/10年)以下;宋朝出现了印刷术,记录频度增到(3次/ 10年)以上;1900年后现代地震仪问世,记录频度达到(100-1000次/10年)的高水平。说明迄今的地震事件的有效统计间隔仅仅1000年左右,允许我们能够推断出的最大地震活动周期不会超过500年。

Undoubtedly, technological content in such historical documentation is on the weak side. Written by officials and used for earthquake relief, these records documented earthquakes "more defined in general terms than specific quantity; more described than analysed", making it hardly likely to apply them in modern scientific work. In terms of the documentation frequency of these historical data on earthquakes of 4.7 magnitude or above in the past 3000 years ( Table 5 ), the frequency was below 2 times per 10 years for most of the time before the Song Dynasty; when printing was invented in the Song Dynasty, the frequency increased to 3 times per 10 years; after the invention of seismoscope in 1900, it reached 100-1000 times per 10 years. This shows that the effective time interval of earthquake events is only about 1000 years, and the maximum cycle of seismic activity that we are allowed to infer does not exceed 500 years.

      图5  中国历史地震的史料记录频度(每10 年期间4.7级以上地震的累积数目)。图中给出了

中国地震科学史的四个阶段:I. 原始认识,II. 自然崇拜,III. 感性认识,IV. 科学探索。

   Fig. 5  Event rate in the Chinese literature records of historical earthquakes ( accumulated number

per-decade for the earthquakes with magnitude larger than 4.7)。The four stages of the

history of Chinese seismological research are indicated as (I) primitive knowledge,

(II) worship of nature, (III) perceptual knowledge, (IV) scientific research.

关于预言地震,占星卜卦,远古就有。地震强活动的朔望特点,或为中国人最早发现的自然规律。比如汉朝公元前29年——“朔,日有食之。夜,地震”(《汉书》);东汉120年——“朔,日有食之,既,郡国八地震”(《后汉书》);宋朝1068年——“又震,是夕月有食之”(《宋史》)等等,这种类型的史料记载大量地遍布于中国几千年的各个朝代,已经成为我国地震活动的一个稳定性特征。至于祖先们是在怎样神秘的气氛中预言地震的,不得而知。有幸,一位洋人留过宝贵记录,他是意大利人马可·波罗(Marco Polo, 1254-1324),1275年来华后持续17年,正值元朝初年。他1295年的游记揭开了当时的官方面纱,也是我们目前所发现的仅有信息:

Making prophecies about earthquake by means of horoscope and divination is a legacy from the prehistorical ages. Perhaps it is an order of nature first discovered by Chinese that earthquake strikes most frequently and violently on syzygy. Let's cite some events for illustration: in 29 BC of the Han Dynasty: "On syzygy, solar eclipse occurred in the daytime, and then an earthquake struck at night" (the Book of Han); in 120 of the Eastern Han Dynasty:"On syzygy solar eclipse occurred in the daytime; soon afterwards, earthquake hit 8 regions" ( the Book of the Later Han); in1068 of the Song Dynasty: "Earthquake struck again, and at night lunar eclipse occurred" ( the History of the Song Dynasty), and etc. Each of the Chinese dynasties over the tens of thousands of years abounded in historical documentation of such characteristic, which has become a stable feature of China's seismic activity. Yet there is still no knowing how our ancestors made earthquake prophecies mystically. Fortunately, there remains some precious record left behind by an Italian named Marco Polo (1254-1324), who came to China in 1275 and stayed here for 17 years, and it was just the beginning of the Yuan Dynasty. His travel notes in 1295, which has unveiled the then official mysterious events, is the only relevant information discovered by us so far:

他们有自己的观象仪,上面有星宿的符号、时间以及它在全年的几个方位。各学派的占星学者每年要考察他们各自的图表,以便确定天体的轨道和天体相互的位置。在这里,他们从各种符号的星宿轨道上发现天象的变化,由此预言每月的特殊现象。例如预告某月将有雷鸣、暴风雨、地震;某月将有闪电和暴雨;某月将有疾病、死亡、战争、冲突和阴谋等。当他们在观象仪中发现某种事件的征兆时,便做出预言,但同时又说:上天可以随意地、或多或少地改变他们所说的。

"They had their own astrolable marked with the symbol, time and each of the positions of a star around the year. Each school of astrologists will review their diagrams to determine the orbits of spheres and their relative positions. Here, on the constellation orbit of each symbol detect changes to astronomical phenomena, and then make prophecies of monthly abnormal phenomena. For example, they will forecast thunder, rainstorm, earthquake in a month; lightning and torrential rain in another month; sickness, death, war, conflict, conspiracy in yet another month, and etc. Once they find omens to an event on their astrolobles, they will make predictions; still, they will state at the same time that Heaven may change their judgements at his discretion more or less."

从积极的含义上讲,古人能够有探索“日-月-地关系”的演绎思路,“不失为我国人民研究地震预报的先声”(李善邦,1981)。当然,这里也有更多的占星术内容,以满足某种社会需要,影响至今。

In a positive sense, this ancient Chinese deductive train of thought by exploring the relation between the sun, moon and earth "was nothing short of the forerunner of research on seismic forecast by Chinese people ". ( Li Shanbang, 1981)

Of course, there is much more to astrology that satisfies certain social needs and such influence lives on.       

震后的补救措施是救灾。中国的震灾救济始于西汉,到了明清两朝已经形成了一整套体系完备的救灾制度,对于地震和自然灾害的报灾、堪灾和救灾程序都作了严格的规定。(唐黎标,2009)

The remedial measure after an earthquake was relief. China's earthquake relief began in the Western Han Dynasty, and by the Ming and Qing Dynasties, a whole set of relief system, with rigorous provisions on the report on earthquake and other natural disaster and procedures for earthquake investigation and relief, had been developed. ( Tang Libiao, 2009 )

 

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