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以史为鉴开创未来Learn from history and blaze a trail for the future

发布时间:2011-09-30 22:53:54
 

以史为鉴开创未来

5. Learn from history and blaze a trail for the future

地震预报在国际上尚处幼年,与社会需求相差甚远。最近,陈运泰(2007)和吴忠良(2007)等对我国地震预报研究从学科上做了很好的反思和战略性分析。本文仅从历史和文化的角度来反思科技创新的问题。

Globally, seismic prediction is still in its stage of development, falling far short of social needs. Recently, Chen Yuntai (2007) and Wu Zhongliang (2007) make quite a good review and strategic analysis of China's seismic prediction research as a science. This paper is just a review of the issue of scientific and technological innovation in terms of history and culture.

 

 

 

5.1 前进道路上的历史包袱

5.1 Historical hurdles to progress

1.唯上从众的潜意识——它可能是抑制、危害我们科技创新的首要思想顾虑和心理障碍。中国缺失了资本主义的发展阶段,几千年的封建文化和集权观念留给了我们深深的烙印。与此相反,科学的发展必须有科学的批判,学术论争所带来的思想活跃和巨大动力,常常是我们不做提倡不能享用的奢侈品;

   1. Subconscious submission to authority and conformity --- Maybe it is the primary mental scruple and maladjustment that inhibits and jeopardizes our innovation in science and technology. For the absence the development stage of Capitalism, the feudal cultural and the mentality of centralization of power over the past thousands of years have left deep imprints on us. On the contrary, the development of science is impossible without scientific criticism, and the vigor of thoughts and enormous drive brought about by academic contention are usually luxuries we are not entitled to enjoy without first advocating; 长久以来,我国的神话故事标新立异一直偏少;思想交流过于严肃,学术问题容易政治化,行政干预左右科学观点。一句话,导致中国传统文化中的想象力远远不丰富,思路不活跃,直接损害了科学和艺术创新的灵感和土壤(范文澜,1964)。

 Over the ages, China's traditional culture has been featured with little mythology and originality. In a word, all this has produced a traditional Chinese culture that is far from imaginative, inactive in thought, which has directly undermined the inspiration and soil for innovation in science and art( Fan Wenlan, 1964).

2.唯象性的研究习惯——中国地震预报的思想基础是唯象学的,一直继承着秦汉以来的实用性科学传统。惯于做“现象-现象”的分析,善于做“看图识字”的推理,一俟做好现象的归类和外推,预报意见就能够形成,甚至可以不考虑现代科学究竟支持还是不支持这种表象性关系。近30年的观测技术已获得极大地提高和改变,但唯象性的研究习惯始终未变,因循守旧的思维方式没有前进,导致地震预测的成败经验很难总结提高。

   2. Habitual phenomenological research --- China's seismic prediction, with a phenomenological thinking foundation, has been carrying on the practicable tradition that originated during the Qin and Han Dynasties, being used to making "phenomenon to phenomenon" analyses and good at inference as simple as "learning to read by assistance of pictures", so much so that once some generalization or extrapolation based on observation of phenomena, opinions of forecast will be formed, giving no consideration whether modern science supports such phenomenological relation. Despite the tremendous enhancement and change of observation technology over the past 30 years, the phenomenological research practice has remained the same, no progress in the conventional mentality, making it hard to generalize the successful and unsuccessful experiences of seismic prediction.

人们注意到,西方的科技发展走在另一条路上,他们以追求自然规律和理论架构为目标,基于实验的因果关系进行演绎推理,属于一种早期缓慢、后劲很大的做法。由此所建立的板块学说、震源力学、卫星观测等等一系列现代理论和创新技术,并不是来自地震预报的直接诉求,但却发挥了重大的指导性作用。

It is noted that the Western science and technology is advancing along another road, with a goal of pursuing the order of nature and theoretical frame, making deductive inferences based on experimental causation, a practice that shows slow progress in the initial stage but great vigor later on. The consequent series of modern theories and innovative technologies, including the Plate Tectonics, seismic source dynamics, satellite observation, and etc., though not response to the immediate appeal for seismic prediction, have played a guiding role in seismic prediction.

3.空谈哲理的分析方法——中国不是现代数理化学的诞生地,缺乏这种文化的厚重积淀和奠基性贡献,用西方“舶来品”所演奏的交响乐总欠点说不出的魅力和韵味。中国几乎是世界上最迫切要求尽快实现地震预报的国家,政府在硬件设备上给予了巨大投资,但是我们缺乏对基本实验和基础理论的长期投入与严格训练。科研人员会在定量分析和形式逻辑上显出思维薄弱。当从感性转入理性认识、从现象转入本质时,经常力不从心,会下意识地用空谈哲理的方式替代专业分析,言而无物,显出了明显的浮躁与轻佻。

   3. Analytical method featured with empty philosophy ---- China is no cradle of modern mathematics, physics and chemistry and as such lacks the richness of Western culture these aspects and has have no foundation-laying contribution thereto. It sounds that there is always some charm and lingering appeal missing from a symphony played with imported instruments. Of all the countries of the world, China most urgently calls for the realization of seismic prediction as soon as possible. Yet, though the Government has invested a lot on physical equipment, we lack long-term investment and stringent training in fundamental experiments and fundamental theories. The thinking of our researchers will prove to be on the weak side in terms of quantitative analysis and formal logic. When shifting from perceptual knowledge to rational knowledge, or from phenomena to nature, they tend to find it beyond them, and subconsciously replace professional analysis with empty philosophical talk, a sure sign of

   我们喜欢把不同的问题都简单地归纳为“应力集中-调整,能量积累-释放”的二元素,同西周末年的“阴阳辩证”理念无二区别。相比之下,西方学者多从理论模型、试验条件、参数变化、因果关系上切入问题,对本质的分析更加定量化和理性。

We are inclined to generalize simply issues of different natures as the formula of two elements: " When stress gets concentrated, it will be adjusted; when energy gets accumulated, it will be released", nothing short of the "Yin and Yang dialectics " of the late years of the Western Zhou Dynasty. In contrast, Western scholars tend to approach a problem in terms of theoretical mode, experimental condition, parameter variation, causation, and etc, and it follows that their analysis of nature shows more quantification and rationality.

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